Tool · Demo
Johan
Johan plays out the 2026 World Cup ten thousand times and counts how often each nation wins. Not a single prediction, but ten thousand complete tournaments, based on Elo ratings, recent form and injuries. That gives every team a probability: from the round of 16 to the title.
Wat zit erin
Seven tabs, one tournament.
Johan runs the whole World Cup and shows the outcome from seven angles. From the big picture to one nation's path, and from a full pool bracket to the comparison with the bookmakers.
Running the tournament
Overview
The title chances of all 48 teams in one stacked bar, plus a table with the chance of reaching every round. The title favourite, your own pick and the combined chance of the top three sit at the top.
Team path
Zoom in on one nation. You see the chance per round, the group rivals, four scenarios from winning the group to elimination, and the opponents you actually meet most often.
Predictions
A complete bracket from the group stage to the final, built coherently so each round builds on the last. Ready to copy onto your pool form, without contradictions.
Market edge
The model set against the bookmakers. The edge shows where Johan sees more or less chance than the market, with the margin stripped out. Analytical, not betting advice.
Exploring and testing
Ratings
Adjust the team strengths and the squad factor yourself and run again. That's how you explore scenarios: what if a star player drops out, or a side is in form. Your changes are kept in your browser.
Backtest
The honesty test. Johan replays famous matches from past World Cups using the ratings of the time, and shows how well the model caught those results and upsets.
Guide
A detailed manual for the tool: what each tab does, what each field means, and what the model can and cannot do. Including an honest list of its limits.
Run the tournament.
Open the simulator and play out the World Cup ten thousand times. Free to use, no account needed. A demo, not a prediction and not betting advice.
Open de simulator